Ars longa, Vita brevis

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There is an old chinese proverb that goes: “If you wait by the river long enough, you will see the body of your enemy floating by.”

In the last few months, waiting by the Adyar, I have seen the bodies of the economist who predicted that the rupee would appreciate to 36 while interest rates are cut by 3%, of those who thought Bernanke was clever, of those who thought that inflation in India was nowhere near 15%. Maybe I am theThuppariyum Sambu of finance, and while my analysis is usually all wrong, things usually happen as I expect.

So, here is another one, from Elliott Wave theory and using fibonacci numbers again. Any market rise will have retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 76.4%. The developed stock markets have retraced 38.2% of their rise since 2004, India has given back 50% of its rise since May 2004 when it was thought that communists would hamper governing, and China has fallen over 61.8%.

Enough is enough. Just buy the stock markets now.

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