The Maanga

Yes, the party may win the next election. And, M Karunanidhi’s decline and rivalry between the siblings may mean the DMK is not at its cohesive best in the next elections. But that is merely a personality threat — the AIADMK seems to have a much graver problem — it’s slowly untangling itself from the coalition MGR magically built up. That of Thevars and Dalits. That it was political genius to have brought these two warring castes  together is more apparent now than it probably was in the 70s.

Since the Tamil blogs do that analysis much better than I ever can, here is a tiny speck of a proof to the general perception that the AIADMK is now a Thevar party that is alienating the Dalits,

ஒரு செல் உயிரினங்களும், தாவரங்களும்  தமக்குள் பரிமாறிக் கொள்ளும் சங்கேத மொழியை ஆராய்ச்சி செய்து கொண்டிருக்கிறார்கள் விஞ்ஞானிகள். ஆனால், காதலைப் போலவே கண்ஜாடையையும் மவுனத்தையும்கூட ஒரு மொழியாக மாற்றி தன் இனத்தை அடையாளம் காணும் வித்தையைக் கண்டுபிடித்திருக்கிறது சாதி. புத்தன் முதல் பெரியார் வரை எத்தனை பேர் வந்தால் என்ன, பாஷாணத்தில் புழுத்த புழுவல்லவோ சாதி?

ஒளிபரப்பப்பட்டு வரும் இந்த வன்முறை, தாக்குகின்ற மாணவர்களுக்கும், வேடிக்கை பார்த்து நின்ற போலீசக்கும் எதிராக வலுவான ‘பொதுக்கருத்தை’ உருவாக்கியிருக்கிறது. பொதுவாக எல்லா வன்முறையையும் எதிர்ப்பது போலவும், சாதியை வெறுப்பது போலவும், சட்டத்தின் ஆட்சிக்காகக் குரல் கொடுப்பதைப் போலவும் கட்டமைக்கப்பட்டுள்ள இந்தப் பொதுக்கருத்தின் ஒவ்வொரு கல்லையும் இணைக்கும் சாந்து ‘ஆதிக்க சாதி சிந்தனை’. அம்பேத்கரின் வார்த்தைகளில் சொல்வதென்றால் ‘இந்து மனோபாவம்’.

“தலித்துகள் தாக்குகிறார்கள், நம்மாளு அடிபடுகிறான், போலீசு வேடிக்கை பார்க்கிறது” இந்த மெசேஜ் கடைசித் ‘தமிழனின்’ மண்டை வரை இறக்கப்பட்டிருக்கிறது. எனினும், நாம் அஞ்சியது போல இதுவரை தமிழகம் பற்றி எரியவில்லை என்பது கொஞ்சம் ஆறுதலாகத்தான் இருக்கிறது. ஆயினும் இதை நினைத்து மனப்பூர்வமாக மகிழ்ச்சி கொள்ள முடியவில்லை. இந்த அமைதிக்குப் பல காரணங்கள் இருக்கலாம்.

In the next elections, one can be reasonably sure that the DMK will not do well. And in the near future, it will possibly split. The AIADMK lead front is a good bet for the short term — the question is, how does a small regional party like the MDMK  optimize its tactics with respect to a viable medium to long term strategy?

While that holds for most political parties in India — planning for changes in political lanscape, that is — what the MDMK and PMK do in Tamil Nadu will be interesting for reasons slightly more engaging. My theory is, the plausibility of Democracy as we now understand it is limited and that it will be tested first in societies similar to that of this state.

The MDMK, formed in 1994, has underperformed by any and all measures ever since.

The Dravidian Movement edged the Congress out of power in the 60s. That part of Tamil Nadu’s political history is now well explained — the DMK had an issue, had charismatic leaders and the ruling party was a sitting duck. If anything, one only needs to ask why other southern states did not emulate the Dravidian Movement earlier. Yes, Kerala went on a different path and chose revolution — possibly because of their history; one can explain Communism as an offshoot of the Princely State, if one tries hard. However, it is Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh that leave a lot to be desired — if one looks at them through a federalist’s prism.

Through the 70s and 80s — the arithmetic in Tamil Nadu was simple. Or so the conventional wisdom assumed. The DMK and the AIADMK had about 40% vote share each while the Congress had the remaining 20%. That simplistic statement and does not take into account how the state voted differently for Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections. MGR figured that pattern and the magic formula for alliance and arrived at a compromise in seat sharing with the Congress that is now belatedly emulated across the nation. It is one where the regional party will contest in a majority of the seats for the Assembly election and the national party will get its due in the Lok Sabha election — all calculations relative to parties’ perceived vote shares.

The Congress decline of the 90s was exponential from an already small base in Tamil Nadu. The result has been: smaller regional parties have usurped the Congess into becoming third, fourth and possibly even fifth in terms of vote share. The PMK, the MDMK and the DMDK have not only taken over from the Congress as important parties to consider for alliance arithmetic, they have also changed the dynamics of the MGR formula simply by virtue of being smaller regional parties.

Stunningly though, the State has largely had one party rule. Possibly, that’s a result of arithmetic again — the pre-poll alliances in Tamil Nadu ensure a two person race. Consequently, the winning party gets a disproportionately large number of seats. Since the 90s, the state elections have been reduced to something analogous to an American Presidential System of voting. The national party in the alliance obviously loses most if terms of sharing power — because the overall spoils for the smaller parties have now come to mean ministerial births at the Center. And, important ones at that.

The PMK has typified this theory. It has been one of the biggest small regional parties — and has played its cards cleverly. The party has been on the winning side in all elections since 1998. And in the process, has earned a reputation for being some sort of a bellwether. The truth though, one is inclined to conclude, is that the party is simply doing what it should. In this case, it is switching sides each election. The opposition formation will win the election if it crosses over by sheer arithmetic. When the stakes are this apparent, one expects a reasonable politician to play the part. Which is exactly what the MDMK does not.

The MDMK started by being a political party as opposed to the PMK which was originally a caste conclave. As a political party, Vaiko possibly thought he could leverage commitment to ideology – in an atmosphere where the population was getting increasingly cynical of the major parties. What he did not anticipate or didn’t manage well if he did anticipate was that the posture had huge costs. The worst part of that cost was that almost all of it was in the form of short term pains while all possible gains were long term political capital. This strategy, in gambling parlance, was akin to doubling one’s bets at each loss. While it is a mathematical certainty that doing so will ensure victory eventually, the endless liquidity required for that strategy in a political scene is not even possible – let alone being feasible.

Consequently, Vaiko decided to copy the PMK strategy late in the game, in reverse. That meant an alliance the AIADMK in the last assembly elections which only made matters worse for the MDMK. It lost its USP, namely being trustworthy. In essence, what the MDMK now has is Vaiko. Or, his Dravidian method. The party has lost too much time to fancy itself for anything bigger. In that predicament though, the MDMK sticking with the AIADMK may yield greater results for reasons discussed previously.

The MDMK is having its conclave at Island Grounds today.

Politics in Tamil Nadu, over the past half a century, has had two distinct schools: fan clubs and political oratory. Yes, the odd protest movement has evened out the periodic person or party; largely though, the Tamil Nation has been a binary solution space.

Dravidian orator politicians are a vanishing tribe today. They speak Tamil with a diction that makes little practical sense and with sentence constructs far removed from how regular people speak the language in their everyday lives. It’s a tradition that has had a long and often elegant history. Born as a means to tackle the upper caste hegemony on politics that depended on speeches made in English with a British accent, it certainly was one of the pillars on which Tamil Nadu carved a distinct identity for itself. That cliché can only be understood in its entirety when one considers how different the state is – both in terms of its politics and the attitude of its peoples to the Indian state.

V Gopalsamy, or Vaiko[1] as he now calls himself, is possibly the last student of that class – one that speaks with rhetorical flourish in quasi classical Tamil. The speeches are always punctuated by pauses but are unlike Vajpayee’s. They almost always evoke history and make several detours into political philosophy. The current chief minister of the state used to be one of the great exponents of the art — before age and compulsions of coalition politics caught up with him. By the very nature of the current political structure in this country, the second tier of leaders in both kazhagams is not flamboyant. Speaking wise or otherwise.

The AIADMK, by its very nature, has been more a fan club than a political party. MGR wasn’t a great orator and Jaya isn’t either – and they don’t need to be as leaders of the other school. The Congress probably has the best speaker of Tamil, if in a non-Dravidian style — P Chidambaram. However, neither the Congress nor the finance minister can win anything by themselves in the state anyway. I haven’t heard Ramadoss speak three sentences in reasonable succession and Vijayakanth needs a camera.

Great oratory, by itself, has rarely won elections. It needs an emotive issue that fools voters, requires great orators who appear committed to a cause and a very low penetration of mass media. Since we now live in post Sun TV Tamil Nadu, the skill has been reduced to a niche. That is exactly where Vaiko comes in and where I hope to make my case.

My theory is: with the ageing of Karunanidhi and the lack of a suitable replacement for him within the DMK in terms of his training in Dravidian oratory and method, the DMK will be/ is already being forced to play the AIADMK’s game. MK Stalin speaks alright – but is no match for his father. The rest of the DMK has lost out partly because their patriarch is 85 and is still running the show. In such a scenario, if Jaya gets together a coalition that has her traditional fan base and the PMK’s 5% transferable vote – Vaiko will be the GUI on top that sprinkles Dravidian aura over everything.

……part II – to be continued.

[1] – In one of his trademark quips, M Karunanidhi, replying to a reporter’s question in 1996 about Vaiko having changed his name, said ‘avarathu katchiyayi polave, peyarum surungi vittathu’.